by Malcolm Butler
Winter is coming.
It’s a famous line from the Game of Thrones series.
It also rings true for the southern United States this weekend.
Although models are still not 100 percent in agreement and meteorologists continue to remind us that weather is unpredictable, the National Weather Service is still calling for a significant winter weather episode along the I-20 corridor and north.
NWS (Shreveport) meteorologist Ryan Knapp said late Wednesday night that the latest models that had just started to come in are still not clear when it comes to type of precipitation and total accumulation. However, the belief is that our area will be impacted.
“For I-20 and the Ruston area, it’s still a mixed bag when it comes to understanding what is going to evolve as we move into early Saturday morning and through Sunday afternoon,” said Knapp. “Right now the big topic for this event in that area is the concern about freezing rain and sleet across the I-20 corridor.
“The latest models are showing temperatures maybe a touch warmer than previous model runs, but still sufficient when it comes to ice accumulation along the I-20 corridor, especially when it comes to Lincoln Parish.”
Knapp, who emphasized the forecast could change for the better or worse over the next 24 hours, said that it appears as if the Lincoln Parish area will start to see some of the winter precipitation most likely early Saturday.
“By the clock, most likely Saturday morning, but it could be right around midnight and the very early morning hours Saturday,” said Knapp. “That’s when we could start to see the transition over from rain to sleet and the onset of freezing rain. It won’t be instantaneous for freezing rain, but those temperatures that are below freezing will start to arrive just after midnight. That’s when you will see the onset of sleet and freezing rain potential.”
Knapp said the precipitation could continue through Sunday morning.
“This looks to continue through the day on Saturday and into the morning on Sunday as the moisture hangs in the region,” said Knapp. “I would say it may start to subside sometime after lunch on Sunday.”
What about snow?
“You can’t rule out some snow flurries and some snow showers on the back side of this system as the moisture moves out and the cold air surges back in,” said Knapp. “You can’t rule it out, especially if the column of air a few thousand feet up gets below freezing as well.
“That’s the big story with this entire system. While at the surface our temperatures are at freezing and even well below, a few thousand feet up we have this warmer layer of air that is just above freezing which allows for any type of winter style precipitation to melt as it falls through the air. It melts and then turns back to rain and then refreezes as it comes down closer to the ground. Or it refreezes as it hits the ground. That’s where that freezing rain can occur.”
So what does the latest model show as to how far south winter precipitation may occur?
“Going off the weather models we have been receiving tonight, there is a chance winter precipitation could extend as far south as say Natchitoches to say Jena, down around LaSalle Parish.”
The Lincoln Parish Journal will continue to stay up to date on the latest of this winter storm headed our way.
