by Staff Reports
Anyone who has been on social media the last few days probably has seen plenty of posts from various sources about the potential for winter weather in our coverage area starting late this weekend and into next week.
But we all know how unpredictable the weather is.
As of Wednesday evening, the National Weather Service in Shreveport was stating that numerous models do show the potential for much colder temperatures with the possibility of some type or types of wintry precipitation towards the back half of the week.
But that’s a week away and as those of us in the south know, lots can happen in that time.
Armani Cassel, a meteorologist with the NWS in Shreveport, said that it’s still too early to have a strong feeling about what next week may look like despite some projections.
“Based on what we know there is a higher confidence starting later this weekend into early next week … we are more confident in the chance of cold air,” said Cassel. “What I mean by that is temperatures below freezing starting around Monday night into later next week. We are much more confident about freezing temperatures and colder temperatures.
“What we are much less certain about especially as we get into later next week is the chance of wintry precipitation. It’s already harder to predict down here in the south where there are a lot more conditions about the timing of the air and the timing of the precipitation as far as the moisture that is available for that.”
Cassel said there is an 80 percent chance of below normal temperatures for this time of the year on the six to 10 day outlook and the two week outlook.
“Anything beyond that there is a lot more uncertainty,” said Cassel.
Cassel said the timeline for getting a better idea of any type of winter precipitation (snow, freezing rain, wintry mix)
“It really complicates the forecast,” said Cassel. “It could go up to the to 6- to 12-hour window where there could still be some uncertainty of what type to expect. It will come down to 24- to 48-hours prior as far as whether to expect any winter precipitation. Not sure what, but where as far as the distribution. I would say by five to seven days from now as far as what may or may not fall. That’s the baseline.”
So is there a chance for a historic winter storm in the South?
“We have a suite of over 10 different models that we use,” said Cassel. “What can happen is we can have outliers in the statistics. Those signals that show up in those models can be on the higher end, but there is a lot of variability in that. It means there is a probability, but it doesn’t mean it’s necessarily likely.”
Cassel did say the forecast calls for the potential of some severe thunderstorms on Sunday.
“We are expecting another cold front on Sunday, but before we get the colder air there is a chance for severe weather on Sunday,” said Cassel.
