by Kirk Hollis
I wish I could tell you that people who truly study the nuances of fantasy football are fool-proof when it comes to making predictions, but alas, that is not and never will be the case. Admittedly, last week’s forecast of players to watch for included several who got hurt in the first quarter of their respective games, but it was still not a pretty picture at the end of the day. Anyone who has played long enough knows fantasy football to be a fickle mistress. So, do we just throw up our hands and start flipping a coin to see which players are going to perform well on a certain week? We. Do. Not. We pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and look forward to Week Five.
Let’s first take a moment to discuss those that play fantasy football week to week and not over the course of a season. One thing to look for in assessing players to target from week to week is to look at projected point totals for each of the NFL games. For example, Kansas City-Minnesota is projected to be a game in which at least 53 points are scored. That’s pretty high comparatively speaking. It means that stars like Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and Travis Kelce are probably worth the purchase price it takes to obtain them. The next highest scoring match-up (projected) is Philadelphia-LA Rams. A.J. Brown was clamoring for touches after Week Two and touches he did receive in Weeks 3-4. That makes DeVonta Smith a good target for a one time play this week as Brown has been thoroughly fed and it’s time to feed Philadelphia’s other prime pass catcher. On the flip side, Saints-Patriots and Ravens-Steelers are seen as the lowest scoring games for the week. Avoid players from all four teams as a result, especially the three with major QB issues right now (Saints, Patriots, Steelers).
Turning back to those who play fantasy football over the course of a whole season, we’ve seen enough now to know who is capable of putting it together, production-wise, more weeks than not and who can be put out to pasture, metaphorically speaking. Aaron Jones is an example of a player whose capabilities are still very much intact. Jones came out hot in Week One scoring multiple touchdowns, but then sat in Weeks 2-3 before coming back last week to extremely meager results. Did Jones lose all his mojo in between Week One and Week Four? Not at all. The Packers had him on a restricted snap plan last weekend and got behind in the game so badly that they completely abandoned the run. In addition, A.J. Dillon is hardly averaging two yards a carry, so Jones is still a player you’re going to be able to lean on as the season wears on. As for Drake London and Kyle Pitts of the Falcons, we now know that until/unless Atlanta changes quarterbacks, both were overvalued this season and can’t be trusted for more than a one week anomalous performance going forward. Four weeks is, after all, enough time to identify trends and unless a player has shaken loose for at least one good week by now, they’re probably not going to get you very far in fantasy moving forward.
One surprising element of fantasy football in 2023 thus far has been the play of rookies. Often times, rookies are dismissed in August drafts as aside from the occasional can’t miss profile like Bijan Robinson, it’s assumed that rookies will take time to develop. That development curve has been straightened seemingly this year and in recognition of that, here are our projected top dozen rookies going forward in terms of fantasy football productivity:
- De’Von Achane- The sky’s the limit in that offense
- Bijan Robinson- Touches should continue to increase over time
- Puka Nacua- Only Cooper Kupp’s return keeps him this low
- Anthony Richardson- Scary potential from a fantasy standpoint
- Zay Flowers- A big performance is right around the corner
- Sam LaPorta- Best producing rookie TE in quite some time
- C.J. Stroud- The real deal, real world and fantasy alike
- Tank Dell- Drafting off of Stroud, but still getting open often
- Jahmyr Gibbs- Stuck behind David Montgomery, but still capable
- Rashee Rice- Likely to emerge as Chiefs’ top WR by November
- Jordan Addison- Hit or miss from week to week, but hits are significant
- Michael Wilson- Finding success in a depleted Arizona WR group
Honorable mention: Marvin Mims (Denver), Jayden Reed (Green Bay)
What a year for rookies. It will be fun to re-visit this list in early January to see how accurate it was. That’s all for this week, folks. Wishing you the best of success on this first full weekend of October in the wild, but wonderful world of fantasy football.
__________________________________
Kirk Hollis is a 1989 Ruston High School graduate and has written for Fantasy Football Today, one of the nation’s top fantasy info sites, for 15 years.
