Fantasy Football Forecast: In QBs we trust

Have you ever noticed how the loss of a quarterback affects everyone around him also in terms of production on the field of play? It’s something we’re seeing come full circle this year with so many teams now missing their primary signal caller.

More specifically, the Jets, Patriots, Browns, Bengals, Colts, Titans, Raiders, Giants, and Vikings are all currently starting quarterbacks that were not their starters when the season started. Technically, the Cardinals fall into that category, being Kyler Murray is actually a big improvement over where they started. Anyway, the impact on the entire offensive system is overwhelming to the point that when I took a look at the weekly rankings for Week 13,

Ja’Marr Chase wasn’t even considered a top-15 option at his position. Amari Cooper was out of the top-25. And, the impact isn’t just on wide receivers. Running backs also bear the brunt of a quarterback departure due to injury as they’re forced to try to run with the safeties pulled into the box to stuff said run. What a tangled mess an injured QB leaves behind. There’s simply no substitute for competent quarterbacking in the NFL.

With all that in mind, who are the offenses at this point that ARE functioning properly? In other words, as the fantasy playoffs approach, who can you as a manager put your trust in? To answer that, we’ve identified a few offenses you can hitch your wagon to. So, read on and then hitch away…

Jacksonville Jaguars: It took about half a season, but Jacksonville has finally figured out how to use all of their talented pass catchers seemingly. Calvin Ridley has been among the top five receivers in fantasy football each of the past two weeks and Christian Kirk continues to be a player you can count on week in and week out for double digit scores. Assuming no regression, Jacksonville’s schedule for December includes the Bengals, Buccaneers, and Panthers. Look for the offense to continue to improve over that stretch of time.

Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott is enjoying his finest season as a Cowboy both in terms of fantasy production and real-world leadership. His play has been even good enough of late to pull Brandin Cooks back into relevancy alongside his superstar counterpart, CeeDee Lamb. There was a time when I thought Tony Pollard was hitting a wall, so to speak, after embracing the bell cow role in Dallas for the very first time. The last two weeks, though, he’s looked fresh and capable and now my thought is just to start every Cowboy that you can. The ‘Boys are getting it done.

Houston Texans: It seems strange to type the words “Houston Texans” after anything that is detailing offensive firepower, but with C.J. Stroud looking like the best rookie quarterback in a decade, this is becoming something of a juggernaut. Before the season started, the receiving corps of Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown was likely seen as anything but above average. It’s funny, though, how a great quarterback elevates an entire offense. This is the inverse of our opening paragraph then as everyone on the Texans is better because Stroud is so good. Starting Texan skill position players, thus, isn’t just trendy. It’s flat out smart practice.

San Francisco 49ers: Thought of primarily as a great defensive team over the past decade, the landscape in the Bay Area really shifted offensively last year when Christian McCaffrey was brought in via trade. McCaffrey has actually been healthy the past couple of years  after so many injuries bogged down his success in 2020 and 2021. In addition, with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle all healthy at the same time, the 49ers have become an explosive team offensively while still being proficient defensively. If we’re talking about hitching wagons again, this is definitely a group to align with in December.

All of this is the say that in fantasy football, you have to do more than just examine player’s numbers from week to week. In life, we call it taking a systemic approach. Trends matter. Momentum matters. As the calendar turns to December, you need to ask yourself: Which teams get better offensively each and every week? Who is carrying substantial momentum into this month as opposed to trying to find answers at quarterback or threatening to fire coaches? And, finally, who are the hottest QBs in the league at the present time? Those guys will carry everyone around them to fantasy glory. Every year. Every time.

As for this upcoming week, six teams are on bye for the second time this season. That means some managers will be reaching deep into their benches for reinforcements. If you’re looking for a game to tap into, I recommend Miami @ Washington. The Commanders can’t stop anyone and as such will be giving up points while also trying desperately to chase them. Sounds like a recipe for fantasy success to me. Best of luck as always and we’ll talk more about fantasy playoff strategy next week. Until then…

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Kirk Hollis is a 1989 Ruston High School graduate and has written for Fantasy Football Today, one of the nation’s top fantasy info sites, for 15 years.