By Kirk Hollis
Have you ever started preparing for a trip and checked ahead to see what the weather was going to be like at the destination over the course of your time there? If so, that’s the exact same thing we do as fantasy football enthusiasts at this time of year.
We look ahead.
The fantasy playoffs in most leagues begin next week and it’s never too early to start analyzing which players and teams might be able to lead you to success in the postseason. As such, we’ll dive in this week to teams and players with favorable match-ups during the three week playoff window (most leagues don’t count Week 18 as too many players take that week off) and also talk weather. Weather you ask? Well, it’s December and in fantasy football games that feature NFL play in December, weather can matter. A lot actually. This week, we’ll only look at quarterbacks and running backs before turning to other positions next week.
So, onward we go…
Quarterbacks with Favorable Playoff Window (Weeks 15-17) Match-ups:
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia): @ Seattle, vs. NY Giants, vs. Arizona
It doesn’t get much better than that. There’s always the risk that the Eagles get up big in that trio of games and shut their offense down early for the day, but in terms of raw data (fantasy points allowed to date by defenses with respect to QBs), this is a pristine path.
Dak Prescott (Dallas): @ Buffalo, @ Miami, vs. Detroit
Prescott will remain pass-happy, most likely, in all three of these match-ups as all of these teams can put up points big-time. The only concern in the first game is weather (more to come on that as we proceed)
Russell Wilson (Denver): @ Detroit, vs. New England, vs. LA Chargers
I realize Wilson is only a borderline starter at best when it comes to fantasy football, but I love this stretch of games and what it may hold in store for him and his team. The Patriots’ defense is by far the best of the three Wilson will face, but they are SO bad on offense that red zone opportunities will abound for the Broncos simply based on attrition.
Quarterbacks with Poor Playoff Window (Weeks 15-17) Match-ups:
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami): vs. NY Jets, vs. Dallas, @ Baltimore
Yuck. The Jets have a lot of problems this season, but they’re also the hardest team for quarterbacks to score fantasy points on in the entire league. I guess Dallas could present some shoot-out opportunities in the middle game, but at Baltimore is a death trap, too.
Sam Howell (Washington): @ LA Rams, @ NY Jets, vs. San Francisco
The Jets and 49ers on back-to-back weeks is a no-go for me. I know Howell has had a break-out season in the fantasy realm, but these are games in which he’s going to struggle to produce through the air. Most of his points the past three weeks have come about via rushing touchdowns anyway.
Running Backs with Favorable Playoff Window (Weeks 15-17) Match-ups:
Bijan Robinson (Atlanta): @ Carolina, vs. Indianapolis, @ Chicago
Now, THAT is what you’re looking for in a playoff schedule for your star running back. The Panthers and Colts both rank bottom five in terms of fantasy points surrendered to running backs and weather in Chicago in December dictates lots of rushing attempts. Sign up for the Bijan Express.
D’Andre Swift (Philadelphia): @ Seattle, vs NY Giants, vs. Arizona
Same song as Hurts, but second verse. None of these teams can stop the run and that’s not going to change in the weeks ahead. Swift has a complicated health history late in NFL seasons, but if he’s healthy, he could win some championships for fantasy managers.
Kyren Williams (LA Rams): vs. Washington, vs. New Orleans, @ NY Giants
I know people are going to be starting Williams in every playoff game no matter what, but it’s worth noting just how good these match-ups are. Particularly that first one. The Commanders are a revolving door on defense and Williams will be passing through often.
Running Backs with Poor Playoff Window (Weeks 15-17) Match-ups:
Raheem Mostert (Miami): vs. NY Jets, vs. Dallas, @ Baltimore
Loyalty to the avalanche of good things Mostert has brought to the table this season will keep him in playoff lineups, but as with Tua, these aren’t favorable. As an aside, De’Von Achane’s role will continue to grow as well.
Saquon Barkley (NY Giants): @ New Orleans, @ Philadelphia, vs. LA Rams
Not sure many managers who drafted Barkley early in August will be making much of a playoff run anyway, but all three of these defenses stuff the run. Like blow it up completely typically. With what the Giants are composed of on the offensive line to begin with, expectations should thus be kept low.
And, now for a statement about the weather. In cities like Buffalo, Chicago, Boston, Green Bay, Cleveland, Philadelphia, New York, Baltimore, and Washington D.C, December weather can make things hard for quarterbacks and receivers especially and there are no domes to be found. Next week, we’ll target a few teams to avoid picking players from as a result in addition to looking at WR, TE, and Team Defense match-ups. See you then and best of luck wrapping up your fantasy regular seasons!
