by Malcolm Butler
As Hurricane Beryl bears down on the gulf coast of Texas, forecasters at the National Weather Service in Shreveport said that the impact of the remnants of the storm could mean some weather for our area.
Ryan Knapp, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Shreveport, said Sunday evening that although there is still plenty of uncertainty with the path of Hurricane Beryl, he does believe it will bring rain to Lincoln Parish.
Knapp said according to the 5 pm. advisory on Sunday, landfall would have taken place over Sunday night.
“Even a small (shift) can affect where landfall will take place,” said Knapp. “We strongly advise people not to focus on the center of where Beryl is. Anywhere within the bounds of the cone could be where the storm makes landfall.”
Knapp said as of Sunday evening Beryl was projected to make landfall anywhere from Lake Jackson, Texas, west to Matagorda Bay, Texas.
“Based on the current forecast, they are calling for it to be a Category 1 Hurricane when it makes landfall,” said Knapp Sunday. “But obviously there could be some changes given any sort of strengthening prior to landfall. They are calling for 85 mile per hour winds at landfall and then having Beryl inland within 24 hours.”
Hurricane Beryl’s historic Cat 5 strength was a result of record warm surface water temperatures that fueled it, thus creating a powerful storm at an unprecedented date that wrecked parts of the Caribbean and Mexico last week.
However, Knapp said time over land helped weaken it.
“It subsided in the sense compared to some of the initial forecasts calling for it to be a little stronger prior to landfall,” said Knapp. “Time over land over (eastern Caribbean) combined with dry air and some sheer on the storm Saturday delayed any further intensification. It kept it stagnant over the past 12 to 24 hours.
“That being said, organization was a little better (Sunday) compared to (Saturday), and that can lead to possible strengthening prior to landfall. Any last minute intensification can obviously increase the 85 mile per hour winds its calling for right now.”
So what does this mean for Lincoln Parish?
“In terms of northwest Louisiana, obviously we could start seeing some form of rain as early as this afternoon,” said Knapp. “But when it comes to whatever is left from the center of Beryl … by late (Monday) night and Tuesday morning is when Beryl will be at its closest to our area.
“In terms of rainfall for (Lincoln Parish), the current forecast is up to an inch possible. The heaviest rain access will be across east Texas, southeast Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas where they could see as much as four to six inches.”
Knapp did say that our area is in the risk area for possible tornadoes.
“Northwest Louisiana is in technically the higher of the tornado area based on the location of where Beryl is moving,” said Knapp. “In the realm of everything it’s not a generally high risk, but it’s not a zero risk either.”
