By Malcolm Butler
The NCAA’s new age-based eligibility model could temporarily reduce Division I scholarship opportunities for high school athletes over the next several recruiting cycles.
For years, the transfer portal has dramatically reshaped Division I recruiting. Now, college coaches believe the NCAA’s latest eligibility change could temporarily create another obstacle by reducing the number of available roster spots for incoming freshmen.
A local high school coach agrees.
The NCAA’s newly adopted age-based eligibility model, approved this week by the Division I Council, is expected to create greater consistency in college athletics while simplifying eligibility rules. But coaches and administrators also believe the transition to the new system could temporarily reduce scholarship opportunities for high school recruits as current college athletes potentially remain on rosters longer.
Under the new model, student-athletes will have a five-year eligibility window beginning at the earlier of their first full-time enrollment at any college or university — including junior colleges and international institutions — or the beginning of the academic year following their 19th birthday.
Current student-athletes with remaining eligibility will be evaluated under both the previous eligibility rules and the new age-based model, with whichever system provides the most favorable outcome applying during the transition. That means some current players could receive an additional year of eligibility, leaving fewer roster openings for potential high school recruits in the short term.
“I just don’t know how many guys will have homes whenever you get to that point in your roster, when you’re able to have an older player versus a younger player,” said Louisiana Tech head football coach Sonny Cumbie.
Louisiana Tech Director of Athletics Ryan Ivey said he believes the transition period will create only a temporary disruption for high school recruiting.
“You’re creating another obstacle in the recruiting funnel right now because current student-athletes could get another year,” said Ivey. “But once we get through the full four-year cycle, I don’t think it’s going to have any more impact on high school recruiting than what the current transfer market is. I think that’s the biggest impact on high school recruiting — just the transfer component.”
For Cumbie, the concern isn’t whether recruiting will change. It’s how long the adjustment period may last.
“I think it’s going to really put a strain on the high school classes in the next year or two,” Cumbie said. “There’s going to be a lot of players on our roster and every roster across the country now that has an extra year of eligibility. That’ll impact high school recruiting because there are going to be more players, whether it’s in the portal or on your current roster, that may have that fifth year.”
Ruston High School head football coach Jerrod Baugh said recruiting had only recently begun returning to normal following the COVID-19 eligibility extensions before the NCAA’s latest change threatened to create another backlog.
“Everything has caught up with all those kids that gained an extra year because of COVID,” said Baugh. “I have a feeling that this is going to back us up in the same respect that COVID did. It’ll take some years to get past that before it returns to what we’re kind of used to seeing as far as a high school kid is concerned.”
While the age-based model eliminates many of the confusing eligibility questions that have surfaced in recent years, it also creates difficult decisions for coaching staffs trying to balance experienced veterans with incoming freshmen.
Unlike previous eligibility changes, the NCAA did not increase roster limits.
That means every veteran player who chooses to return potentially occupies a roster spot that otherwise may have gone to a high school recruit.
“We have looked at our roster,” Cumbie said. “From a recruiting standpoint of our 2027 class, our class is going to be smaller as is, and now it has an opportunity to be even smaller. If some of these guys have another year of eligibility, if they play at the level we think they can and we’re able to retain them, then recruiting-wise you’re not looking to bring in as many new players.”
That uncertainty creates another challenge for coaches trying to build recruiting classes and for high school athletes waiting to see where opportunities will emerge.
Traditionally, coaches begin planning recruiting classes years in advance. Under the new model, many won’t know exactly how many scholarships they have available until much later in the recruiting cycle.
“I think schools won’t really know, and we won’t really know, and everybody in the country won’t really know until you get to December,” Cumbie said. “As kids are returning or not, then I think you’ll see even more of an impact on high school recruiting.”
Baugh said he witnessed a similar trickle-down effect during the COVID eligibility extension, when many recruits who normally would have signed with Division I programs found scholarship opportunities harder to find.
“You have to just explain to your kids, who would normally be a Division I signee, that those spots aren’t available and you’re going to have to work your way up,” Baugh said. “They’re going to have to start at a junior college or a smaller school, but the rules are set up now with being able to transfer without penalty. I think that will help them.”
Louisiana Tech women’s basketball coach Brooke Stoehr believes that uncertainty will be felt throughout college athletics, particularly by the Class of 2027.
“I think the ’27 class is going to be impacted greatly just because there are a lot of unknowns,” Stoehr said. “I think there are going to be a lot of coaches that have a wait-and-see approach.”
For coaches, that means balancing two competing priorities — continuing to recruit talented high school athletes while also keeping experienced players already in the program.
“I’m under the philosophy that if we can get the best player possible, let’s go find a way to get them for the program and make our roster as good as it can be,” Stoehr said. “But we’re also going to make sure we have the flexibility to retain the players that we want to keep within the program that have experience and know what success looks like.”
She expects the new eligibility model to place an even greater premium on experienced players.
“I think what we’re going to see across college basketball is some more movement probably and people going after older players, experienced players,” Stoehr said. “You’ve just got to be prepared for that.”
While veteran players may benefit, younger recruits could find fewer immediate opportunities.
“I think there are going to be limited opportunities early on,” Stoehr said. “I think you’re going to see a lot of people not sign as many players in the fall, and that’s going to leave a lot of uncertainty, especially for the ’27 class but the ’28 class as well until things kind of level off.”
Despite those concerns, neither Cumbie and Stoehr indicated Louisiana Tech plans to continue recruiting high school talent.
“We still want to always recruit heavily with our high school kids like we have the last couple of years,” Cumbie said. “It’s really been a benefit for us because we’ve been able to find some really good players out of high school.”
Stoehr echoed that philosophy.
“We’re going to continue to recruit high school players,” she said. “We’ve been able to get a higher-level high school player, especially since the portal started.”
Ivey believes the uncertainty surrounding recruiting should diminish once the transition period is complete. In the long run, he expects the age-based model to create a more predictable system than the one coaches have navigated in recent years.
While athletic directors and coaches generally support those long-term goals, they acknowledge the next few recruiting cycles may prove challenging as programs determine which current players choose to use their remaining eligibility.
And that challenge could directly impact high school athletes in the near future. But only time will tell.
