Hello and welcome to what I hope will be a useful tool for all you fantasy football enthusiasts who tune into this website on a daily basis. The purpose of this weekly offering is to help you prepare for the week ahead in fantasy football by way of gleaning from what just took place the previous weekend. There is a wealth of information you can access online aside from this obviously, but my hope is that this will be a concise resource that you will enjoy latching onto from week to week. So, let’s jump in!
The most common occurrence after the first week of the NFL season is overreaction on the part of fans. Fantasy football is no different as team managers tend to think the sky is falling after a player fails to meet expectations and tend to overhype a better than expected performance. As such, what overreactions do you want to avoid this week? For starters, don’t jump ship on the Cincinnati Bengals. There is too much talent and chemistry within that offense for a repeat of Week One to happen anytime soon. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins should all bounce back just fine in Week Two. In addition, don’t sour on Saquon Barkley of the Giants. Going from having to face the Dallas defense to playing against Arizona is like bright sunshine emerging from dark clouds. Finally, expect the return of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews this week to greatly improve the production of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. As Cinderella once sang in the metal age, you often “don’t know what you’ve got til’ it’s gone”.
Another thing to avoid in assessing Week One is to not get hung up on sheer fantasy points vs. more significant stats. For example, let’s examine the plights of Nico Collins vs. River Cracraft. Cracraft outscored Collins for fantasy purposes thanks to a TD catch and 40+ yards. So, one might surmise him to be the better waiver wire pick-up this week based on points scored alone. But, there are two stats in fantasy football that are better predictors of future success than sheer points scored. Those would be snaps and targets. Collins, who plays for Houston, was on the field for twice as many snaps as Cracraft (54 to 27) and was targeted by his QB on passes more than two times that of Cracraft (11-5). How often a player is on the field and how often a QB looks his way when he drops back to throw indicates how much that player is trusted and how expansive his role is. Obtaining a list of total snaps by running backs and wide receivers each week is easy as a simple internet search will yield those figures. Same goes for targets. It’s why better days are ahead for guys like D.J. Moore and Rhamondre Stevenson. They’re on the field nearly every time the ball is snapped and their “points” will increase as a result.
To finish off this first week’s edition, you probably didn’t take the time to read this to learn that Patrick Mahomes will fare better moving forward or that Saquon Barkley matches up well against Arizona, so let’s do a deep dive into some players to watch for in Week Two that are borderline starters for your teams, but enjoy excellent prospects this week from a match-ups standpoint. First off, don’t look for Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, or Matthew Stafford to repeat Week One numbers as their match-ups are MUCH tougher this week. Instead, look at Jared Goff, Anthony Richardson, and even Ryan Tannehill as viable options. Running backs who should yield improved numbers include Javonte Williams, Rachaad White, and James Cook. And finally, if you’re looking for that third receiver to start alongside your two “reliables”, I would give consideration to the aforementioned Nico Collins, Christian Kirk in a “bounce back” game, and George Pickens who will be peppered with targets with Diontae Johnson out in Pittsburgh due to injury. As for tight ends, I wish you well in finding production there. Rookies Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta look like the real deal and will only improve from week to week, so if one of them is still on your waiver wire, grab and plug in.
Look forward to more processing and prognosticating next week. Best of luck in Week Two!
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Kirk Hollis is a 1989 Ruston High School graduate and has written for Fantasy Football Today, one of the nation’s top fantasy info sites, for 15 years.
